Hotboxing the Atmosphere

Here we go again. Concomitant with the coming "Super" El Nino we in the Northeast are met with a thick layer of wildfire smoke drifting south from Canada. 2023's El Nino marked a phase shift in Earth's climate that resulted in the highest total acreage of forest burned in Canada since records began:

18.5 million hectares is roughly equivalent to 71,400 square miles, or put another way, an area larger than the size of Washington state. So far this wildfire season isn't so bad (where "so bad" means not apocalyptically unprecedented), with CIFFC reporting 1.9 million hectares burnt as of this post. Just a casual Connecticut + Delaware-sized total area. We shall see what this year's final total is in a few months, but it's clear this is our "new normal" (PDF).

The 2023 wildfire season in Canada released more carbon into the atmosphere than any nation besides the US, China, and India. The feedback loops I alluded to in my prior post are clearly in full swing. Ever worsening wildfires is itself a feedback loop, but it belies an even darker reality: the loop is recursive. Let me explain.

Permafrost is (at least historically) permanently frozen soil in the polar regions of the Earth, predominantly in the north, where most landmass just happens to be. As the permafrost melts, the organic matter in the soil is liberated from stasis and begins the process of decomposition. Just like in your home compost bin (you do compost right?) this process naturally releases methane as a by-product. So we are blesssed with a double whammy: the immediate CO2 (and other pollutants) plus the future methane release resulting from a lack of boreal flora to insulate the ground.

Trees and other plants not only offer direct shade to the soil, their transpiration regulates temperature by releasing water vapor, cooling both the plant and its environs. Sure, these burned areas don't permanently stay barren wastelands; boreal forests are adapted to wildfires, but regeneration takes time - on the order of decades - and since climate collapse is accelerating (and thus a moving target) ecological succession doesn't have the opportunity to take place in the manner in which it historically did. As the acceleration continues and the weight of all past emissions catches up with us, the boreal forest will creep north, likely with grasslands taking its place.

Just like the Finger Lakes moderate temperature and produce a microclimate suitable for vineyards that would otherwise not be possible in Upstate New York, so too do our oceans - but on a planetary scale. ENSO changes prefigure this, which is why tracking the stepwise global temperature increases during the El Ninos of the past two decades is a critical climate science insight. During the El Nino phase of the ENSO cycle, Earth's oceans release latent heat into the atmosphere (its sister La Nina, as you might expect, absorbs thermal energy). More than 90% of anthropogenic climate change is taken on by the oceans; that is, if it weren't for Moana we'd already be roasting.

Some people are obsessed with the stock market and watching the line go up. I, on the other hand, religiously observe this line: