Hydrocarbon Death Cult

It's auspicious that a little over a month ago I began reading Reza Negarestani's book Cyclonopedia. A favorable omen for gas prices? Probably not. A favorable omen for the demise of the Hydrocarbon Death Cult? Almost certainly.

Global CO2 currently has a concentation in the atmosphere higher than Elon Musk's favorite number. The last time CO2 levels were this high was roughly 3 million years ago during the mPWP, a time when sea levels were higher and so too were global average temperatures. If you read that Wikipedia page you will find a link to this article, which has this quote in the first section:

Our simulations, which are constrained by proxy records, suggest highly restricted near‐surface permafrost extent during the mPWP, akin to future large-scale permafrost degradation projections of our model for the end of this century. Our study indicates dramatically smaller-than-present near‐surface permafrost extent in the geological past under climate conditions analogous to those expected if global warming continues unabated.

Let me translate the scientific language into Modern American English: bro we're so cooked. Polar amplification means these latitudes warm faster than everywhere else, which leads the permafrost present in these northerly and southerly locales to thaw and release ever greater amounts of methane, contributing to further warming.

Why am I telling you this? First, it's one of my special interests so I can't help but infodump in my little corner of cyberspace. Second, we all know that war is a racket but it should also be noted - if it somehow isn't obvious - that war is bad for the environment. Full stop. The "death cult" in my not-so-tongue-in-cheek Hydrocarbon Death Cult metonym is not hyperbole nor exaggeration.

Into the Woodchipper

I propose a modification of Carl von Clausewitz's famous quote for our times:

War is the continuation of ecocide by blowing that shit up.

Sure, blowing shit up may poison the soil but nothing need go boom to irreparably harm the environment. For example, you can envelop the countryside in a bunch of fiber optic cables while hunting down some orc human being with your FPV drone.

Not only does war have a direct, immediate (and lasting) negative impact on the environment, but the infrastructure for war-making as such does too, and I'm not just talking about burn pits.

In a single flight over the Atlantic a KC-135 Stratotanker releases the CO2 equivalent of roughly 25 cars driving for a year. During just the build-up to the war, you could see with flight trackers dozens of crossings made - merely one component of a vast logistical network.

Then there's direct attacks on energy infrastructure. From oil rain to massive fires at sea and on land. Ironically, destruction of these facilities might release less CO2 than the labyrinthine supply chain of refining and transport that brings the go-go juice to your local gas station, but the incomplete combustion - because that's what black smoke is - absolutely releases nasties: black soot and carbon monoxide.

Carbon monoxide isn't a greenhouse gas, but it reacts with hydroxyl radicals (OH) and depletes them in the atmosphere. You know what OH is usually breaking down for us in the atmosphere? Methane.

God bless industrial society, innovating feedback loops since 1760.

But What About Stonks?

If you weren't going long oil futures in the months leading up to this you're ngmi. OSINT nerds were able to see this coming, although what eluded most - and admittedly surprised me - has been the scale of the incompetence. We all know the US is a dying empire, and as a result the myth of meritocracy continues to be eroded by the reality of yes-men and know-nothings. However, I still assumed there were cold-blooded realists squirreled away deep inside the Pentagon. I mean, surely there are somewhere but it appears they're not driving the bus.

I don't think anybody is driving the bus. There is a brick on the accelerator pedal and the passengers are too busy doomscrolling to realize the bus driver is actually in some warehouse two states over stealing copper wire.

Iran's demands are sound but not something I expect the U.S. to yield to. For example, giving up all military bases in West Asia (the "Middle East" to Americans) is a non-starter from the perspective of Pentagon and CIA eggheads. I suppose we could continue to attack their energy infrastructure and blow up schools but that won't "win" the war and much like assassinating Khamenei will likely be counterproductive. As a result, unless by some fluke or miracle I expect the Strait to remain closed, leading to an energy crisis.

This may be the exogenous event that pops the bubble, but I'm no Michael Burry. How about instead of reading my drivel you log off and thank a tree for fixing carbon and providing you with life-sustaining oxygen?